I was out for a bike ride on Saturday riding with a new group of friends. I always enjoy the conversation when people learn that I am a statistician - the first look is always the I-remember-that-class-from-college and then a what-do-you-really-do look?
After explaining, they usually get excited and have some understanding of the enjoyment I get helping people make outstanding business decisions. But almost inevitably, the comment comes up about being precise. The comment may be about my balancing our checkbook to the penny (ha!), or being intolerant of mistakes at work.
I always laugh and explain that they were not paying attention in college! Statistics is not about being precise - it's the exact opposite. It's understanding that a precise estimate is not realistic, so you have to include wiggle room when guessing the future. Rather than Tiger Woods will win the Masters today, it's he'll place in the top 10.
It's interesting to see when a "statistical" view point is newsworthy - how many articles do you read that say we are, or are not, currently in a recession? Here, it is advantageous to not be precise. Politicians try not to be precise as they enjoy having wiggle room to work with.
But, it'd also be great to hear more news like a statistician too - not mission accomplished, but we're approaching the expected value of the engagement. Rather than earnings of 7 cents per share, it's we'll do well this quarter.
Actually, that'd be interesting - more wiggle room will drive the precise people I know crazy! And that's fun to watch!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment